Author: Eric Gribble

These are my thoughts (I know nothing of military matters, I am simply and individual with opinions).

The Ukrainian war has demonstrated that the new artillary are cheap off the shelf drones. Whereas it may take 100 artillery shells to hit a target, drones can by guided into trenches and actually follow people. Starlink can be the communications means, however Musk would prefer this system remain civilian. For this reason Starshield satellites are being launched with Starlink satellites. This system is controlled by the Pentagon so decision making is taken away from SpaceX. Russia does not have access to these systems so has relied on meat wave attacks. They have been effective simply because Ukraine is low on resources, but will be a disaster for Russia now that a new assistance package for Ukraine has been passed. A combination of Ukrainian manufactured FPV drones and starlink has kept Russia at bay even though vastly outnumbered and resourced by Russia. Drones have been so effective that Russian soldiers have surrendered to them on the battle field. They know that the operator could detonate the drone at any time. The drones have then been used to guide the soldiers to a safe surrender location. They can fly into trenches and look for targets.

The point is the structure of Australia’s defense. Perhaps Australia should invest in stockpiling one million (minimum) drones and appropriate training. They have become the new artillery and are cheap.

I will say firstly that this is an opinion piece ad in a week’s time it may be proven to be completely wrong, and I may be forced to eat humble pie. So why are both Donald Trump and Nikki Haley ecstatic about the Iowa results. The assumption currently is that the trump train has begun, and that Trump will roll over every U.S. State in the U.S. primary. However, there is a different argument. Iowa is an agricultural mid-west State that polling suggested was always going to be a Trump Landslide. Polling also suggests that if there was a Trump-Biden re-match that it will be close. However, if it were a Haley-Biden match Haley will win by a substantial margin. This polling makes a lie of the trump line that the last election was stolen as it suggests a number of republicans swung to the democrats in 2020 and will not come back for Trump but will for Haley. Sorry but I do not believe that the entire U.S. Judiciary and independent polling groups are corrupt. Trump should have accepted the ruling of the courts, not rallied against the results undermining confidence in U.S. institutions.

So why is Haley so confident. It is because she did a lot better than she expected in Iowa in the face of poor voter turnout and a red neck state. Haley is polling well in the next two States, New Hampshire and her home State of South Carolina. The next two results could be very different. Her research has shown that 70% of Americans do not want a Trump Biden re-match. Americans want a fresh face, a younger person who will put all the divisiveness of the past in the past and bring the U.S. together again. My bold prediction is that the Trump train is about to be derailed by Hailey who will become a two-term president.

Hello Ross

I listened to your podcast. I like to consider myself a classic Liberal. I was a member of the N.Z. ACT party. It is a matter of conjecture as I do not know how others would view me. Anyway, I agree with what you said about the steady decline of Western civilization, it has worried me for some time as well. I have read the book mentioned “Ordinary Men” Christopher Browning. What I took out of it is that we are very much a tribal animal. It takes a brave person to step away from the tribe. It is instinctive, interestingly the consequences may not be severe. My concern about the decline of Australian institutions has been recent court cases. Juries (George Pell case) which did not understand the principle of starting off from an unbiased position and judging purely on the evidence presented. The trend and domination of the media by political activists, the trend towards trial by media. There was a mistrial in the Bruce Lehrman case. As far as I can see, there was not a scrap of evidence, yet I am unsure how that jury would have ruled. Then the political influence as demonstrated by the gross misconduct of the prosecutor. On of the cornerstones of our democracy is the independence of the judiciary, yet I no longer have confidence in it. This is a symptom of the general breakdown of our society, and it is getting bad when basic institutions are failing.

How many understand what Elon Musk is trying to achieve with Starship. Elon has a degree in Economics and is applying it to the starship concept. The intent is to transform the space launch industry with a concept that will make it affordable.

To date the status has been wasteful and expensive. The U.S. spent a fortune developing then preparing all the tooling to build the Space shuttle. Then they only ever had four operational and the launch frequency was abysmal due to issues. Billions spent on development spread over a limited number of flights. Imagine going from Sydney to Perth. You could place a push cycle on the cycle rack and tow a large fuel trailer. When the fuel trailer is empty abandon it on the side of the road. When the final tank of fuel in the car empties throw away the car. Then push cycle the last bit. It gets worse, ate your destination you will need to dump the cycle as well as the Apollo capsule was only usd once. An alternative is simply use just the car and stop off at fuel stations.

To make rocketry affordable the following issues need resolving

Economies of scale (both size of rocket and production line economics)

Full and Rapid reuse

Versatility

Refuel ability and in-situ resource utilization.

Elon hopes to achieve all of the above with Starship. Incredibly none of it has been achieved by the space industry to date.

Economies of scale. a) Physical size. Volume increases faster than surface area. If your fuel load is 10 times dry mass of orbiter and exhaust speed say 5,ooo kilometers per hour, final velocity will be 50,000 kms/hr. So size matters which is why starship is the largest rocket built. Also exhaust speed, the raptor engine has the highest chamber pressure of any rocket engine. b) Production line economics. Elon has said that the hardes part is not building the rocket, it is building the tools that build the rocket. Mass manufacture spreads development costs over many units. This is how Henry Ford made the motor car affordable. Also, production lines can constantly be improved by looking for limiting factors.

Full and Rapid re use. We understand re-use. Imagine your airfare if the aircraft is thrown away after each flight. The RAPID part is equally important. Starship is being designed with simplicity in mind. Elons motto, “the best part is no part”. An elaborate catch tower has been built at Boca Chica, The intent is that it will catch the descending booster and swing it onto the launch ring. The same catch arms will catch the returning orbiter and swing it onto the booster. The intent is to eventually be able to launch the whole stack again the same day, something never achieved in the space industry.

Versatility. The ability to make different variants on the same production line. Cargo Starship, tanker, fuel depot, Point to point, Lunar, Mars – all different variants of the same basic concept instead of going back to the drawing board each time.

Refuel Ability and In-Situ resource use. Re-fuel ability is orbital refueling. The Space Shuttle was confined to low earth orbit yet its large external tank more or less made it to orbit and was then dumped. What a waste, imagine if is were possible to refuel it in orbit. Precisely what is planned with Starship. The upper stage is incorporated into the orbiter. The tank will more or less be empty on attaining orbit. If a fuel depot (A Starship that is all fuel tank) is placed in orbit it can be filled up by multiple starship flights. Then one Starship can refill it’s upper stage (a form of re-use) at the depot and then attain escape velocity (instead of just orbital speed) so can go elsewhere in the solar system. In-situ resource utilization is using off planet resources. Starship was designed with Mars in mind (sometime into the future). It will use its heat shield to reduce it’s velocity to he Martian terminal velocity (higher than on earth due to the thinner atmosphere) then propulsively land. The problem is that the fuel tanks will be empty on the surface. It will require a thousand tons of methane and oxygen to get off the surface. The only way is to refuel on the surface. The Sabatier reaction can create methane from Martian CO2 and water. Either a solar farm or a small nuclear power plant and time can be the energy source. Also electrolysis on the moon can produce lunar O2 from Lunar water which can be shipped off the surface to a fuel depot. This is what is meant by in-situ. (Situ = situate or place, a nerdy term for off planet resources).

So SpaceX is trying to achieve something never done before. I hope I have explained why people are so obsessed with Elon’s Starship concept.